Thursday, October 9, 2008

Enough already!

The governments of the world have responded to this economic crisis and it's time for the market makers, hedgers, and investors to get a grip.

First, the trading going on in the market right now is called...panic trading. It is without reason.

Let's take a look at the events that brought us to today.

First, the housing market has been a disaster waiting to happen for years. Remember, it was during the Clinton administration that the Community Reinvestment Act allowed the expansion of mortgages to include no downpayment, no income verification, bad credit loans.

It was also during the Clinton administration that these sub-prime loans were allowed to be packaged and sold to financial institutions.

But, it also gave a huge incentive for mortgage companies to take mortgages and immediately sell them to someone else for a profit. This allowed room for corruption, deception and fraud as the mortgage companies didn't have to deal with the aftermath.

The housing boom began in 2003 and lasted until the middle of 2005 when it dropped precipitously. See bigcharts.com, decade, monthly chart of TOL, a home building company.

Secondly, oil prices began to rise. Look at bigcharts.com, one decade, monthly chart of OIH, an oil service holdrs etf. It brokeout in the beginning of 2005 and lasted until July of this year.

The combination of these two boom scenarios caused this crisis. People who were barely able to hang on to homes they couldn't afford were devastated by the rise in gas prices. Plus, their artificially low, variable rate mortgage payments were going to go up dramatically. The rest of us had to decrease our spending to afford the extra cost of gas.

It was a "perfect storm." Financial institutions began to see the effects of the housing collapse and the oil crisis and they began to get worried.

The government arranged for short term loans for financial institutions to improve their liquidity.

But, things continued to fall apart for institutions who had acquired these sub-prime mortgages as well as other risky investments.

The Fed again stepped in and arranged for Lehman to be bought. Next, Congress passed the $700 billion bailout (that we all hate.) Then, the Fed arranged loans for AIG (who turned around and had a $440,000 party for it's senior officers.) The treasury rate was lowered by 1/2%, along with most of the world in an astounding show of solidarity. The Fed then agreed to lend money to businesses for their line of credits so businesses could run smoothly. I haven't put everything that was done in here, but it gives us a good overall idea of what has happened.

Basically, the Feds have done everything possible to bolster our economy and ensure that it runs smoothly. Their next step may be to begin large projects to put people to work if employment continues to decline.

But, everything's not right, is it? The market is still dropping as of today. Why is that?

Let's think for a moment. People are working, businesses have their credit, banks are guaranteed to run, even if they fail tomorrow.

It doesn't make sense that the market is still dropping. Is GM stock really worth only $5.70? I would say not. In fact, it is grossly oversold. So are many other good and excellent stocks.

So, enough already! While Jim Cramer says sell, sell, sell. I say, hang tough. Don't panic. If you're out of the market, keep an eye on it. Put your money into certificates of deposit or treasury bonds. No matter what, our economy is basically sound. The government is going to shore us up no matter what the cost.

WE are the cog that makes the wheels turn in this nation. We have to believe in ourselves, in each other. Look around your neighborhood, in your village, town or city. Do you trust your fellow Americans? Of course you do!

We need to go about our lives as usual. We have to have FAITH in our country, in our people. If we don't buy goods, if we panic, if we isolate ourselves, we will fullfill what all the "talking heads" are saying.

So, let's prove, like we did after 9/11, that we are a strong nation and don't panic like the rest of the lemmings.

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